Monthly Archives: February 2015

12 games last night, with a lot of impact on the Sixers potential 1st round draft picks.

Sixers pick (currently 2nd):

• Sixers lost (good): There’s a part of me that would have enjoyed the Sixers beating the Bucks. But, ultimately, there’s only 26 games left, and every loss is important. The Sixers loss, combined with the Lakers and Minnesota winning, really helps the Sixers quest for the #2 slot.
• Lakers won (good): The Lakers are, surprisingly, on a 2 game winning streak, thanks to a 100-97 win over Utah. Both of the Lakers last 2 wins have come right down to the wire, 2 wins that could prove crucial come May. With the win and the Sixers loss, the Lakers now have 3 more wins than the Sixers and are 3.5 games back overall.
• Minnesota won (good): The first game in the KG-has-returned-era turned out to be a smashing success, with a 97-77 win over the Wizards, which not only helped the Sixers pick but also the OKC pick as well. The win gives the Wolves 13 wins to the Sixers 12, and puts the Sixers in a good spot now that Minnesota is finally healthy and playing pretty decent basketball.

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th):

• Lakers won (good): If the Lakers stay at the 4th slot, the Sixers have ~17% chance of getting the pick this year. Not only is that not a good chance, but it also means that if that 17% chance comes to fruition that 2 teams below the Lakers would have jumped into the top 3, which could spell bad news for the Sixers own draft pick. In order to really feel good about getting the Lakers pick, the Sixers are going to need the Lakers to go in a real winning streak here. Having won 2 in a row is about as good as one could have hoped for post-deadline. It’s still an absolute long shot, but every miracle needs a starting point to its story.
• (BTW, with the depth of this draft 2-6, and the uncertainty of the Lakers possibly improving this offseason, I do think it would be beneficial for the Sixers to get the pick this year).
• Orlando lost (good): Orlando currently sits 5th. If the Lakers pick remains in the 4th slot, the Sixers will only have ~17% chance of getting it, but if the Lakers somehow drop to the 5h slot that jumps all the way up to 45%. It’s still a long shot — the Lakers have 4 less wins than the Magic — but picking up a full game represents a good night.
• Sacramento won (bad): The Kings have 5 more wins than the Lakers, and again represent an incredible long shot. But you want the Kings to lose, as the more teams that get closer to the Lakers the better, not just because there’s a better chance of 1 out of 3 teams falling off of a cliff to end the season than relying on just 1 to do so, but also because 2 teams passing the Lakers would be absolute best case scenario.
• Denver lost (good): The loss puts Denver at 20-37, 5 wins up on the Lakers and 4.5 games up overall. Another long shot, but losing against a struggling Phoenix team helps.
• Utah lost (good): Utah is at 21-35, 6 wins up on the Lakers and 6 games up overall.
• Boston won (bad): A Boston loss is about the only blemish on the night, as them finding a way to lose to the Knicks would have helped the Sixers pick, and also pulled them one game closer to the Lakers. Boston sits at 22-33, 8 wins up on the Lakers and 7.5 games up overall.

Miami’s pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

• Miami won (good?): Miami beat Orlando. Again, want 3 of Detroit, Indy, Charlotte, and Brooklyn to pass them. If Miami lost this game — and it took them OT to beat Orlando — I would have been concerned about all 4 passing the Heat. Miami’s now won 2 in a row, but I’m not convinced that they’ll finish out the season well. The win does give them 2 wins more than all of Detroit, Indy, Charlotte, and Brooklyn, though.
• Charlotte won (bad?): I’m kind of counting on one of Charlotte or Brooklyn to collapse and not pass Miami, so I’m classifying this one in the bad category, although if one of Detroit, Indy, or Brooklyn end up not passing Miami it could very well end up being a positive outcome. Charlotte is now 2 wins back of Miami in the win column and 1.5 games back overall.

Thunder’s pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• Washington lost (good): Washington has now lost 5 in a row, and at 33-25 sits only a half game up on the idle Oklahoma City Thunder (32-25) for the 19th slot. With the Thunder on a 7 game winning streak and the Wiz on a 5 game skid, it seems like only a matter of time before OKC slides into that 19th spot, which means the Sixers would get the pick this season.
• Milwaukee won (bad): The Milwaukee win was good for the Sixers own pick, which is the more important pick for the Sixers future, but it does slightly hurt the OKC pick, as it puts Milwaukee back in a tie with OKC for the 18th pick. Still, between the two teams, I’d bet on OKC finishing with a better record down the stretch.
• San Antonio lost (bad): I’m putting this in the bad category because I want the OKC pick to be at #19, not #20. The loss puts the Spurs, who have lost 4 in a row, only 1 win up on the Thunder and 2 games up overall. That being said, if the Thunder don’t pass one of Milwaukee or Washington, this could end up being a good thing.
• Chicago lost (bad): Similar situation to the Spurs in that it could be good, I just don’t want the Thunder to pass too many people. The Bulls do have 4 wins more than the Thunder, which would seem tough to overcome, but with Rose out this could come down to the wire.
• New Orleans won (bad): I suppose I should list this in the interest of full disclosure, as the Pelicans passing the Thunder (and knocking the Thunder out of the playoffs) would obviously be bad. N.O. has won 3 straight and sits at 30-27, 2 wins behind OKC. I don’t see it happening, but it’s something to watch going forward.

Tonight’s games:

• OKC @ Phoenix: A win could pull the Thunder to a tie with Washington for the 19th spot. Phoenix is only 2-8 in their last 10, and struggling.

Only a few games last night, but some big impact on the Sixers ability to get the OKC pick.

Sixers pick (Currently slotted 2nd):

• No changes here, as the Sixers were idle, as were New York, Minnesota, Lakers, and Orlando. Sixers still have the 2nd worst record, 1.5 games behind New York for the worst record, and 0.5 up on Minnesota, 2.5 up on the Lakers, and 6 up on Orlando, who have won 3 in a row.

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th):

• Once again, no real action here. Detroit and Indy both lost, which there’s 8.5 games of separation between them and the Lakers, so no real games of consequence.

Miami’s pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

• Detroit lost (bad?): I keep going back and forth on whether I want Indy and Detroit to lose. Again, all 4 of Charlotte, Indy, Detroit, and Brooklyn passing Miami would be bad, but 3 out of 4 of them passing Miami would be great. I’m counting on Indiana and Detroit to pass Miami. It’s a bit of a gamble, but I’m willing to gamble on that pick to get it as close to the top 10 as possible.
• Indy lost (bad?): Same situation as Detroit. In fact, Indiana and Detroit are both tied at 23-33, 2 games behind Miami. You kind of don’t want Miami to fall off of a cliff, as the more they struggle, the more chance that even more teams, such as Utah (21-34), and Boston (21-33) come into play. So Indy and Detroit winning, and Miami playing slightly below average ball, is probably the best hope here.

Thunder’s pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• OKC won (good): Oklahoma City beat Indiana. They’ve now won 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10, even as Durant continues to miss time.
• Washington lost (good): Tough draw for Washington, as they played Golden State tough for most of the game, but the loss, combined with OKC’s win, pulls OKC to within a game of the 19th slot, and thus conveying the pick to the Sixers.

Tonight’s games:

• Sixers @ Milwaukee: Big not only for the Sixers positioning, but for the OKC positioning as well, as the Thunder are 0.5 games ahead of Milwaukee for the 18th spot. It’s kind of a win-win, but the Sixers pick is more important than the OKC pick.
• Miami @ Orlando: I suppose you want to root for Orlando to win, although if they do, their ability to remain out of the top 10 concerns me a little bit.  Orlando has won 3 in a row.
• Knicks @ Boston: Boston’s in that 8-10 range where they’re really not in play to impact anything, unless Boston really goes on a run or Miami really goes on a slide. But the Knicks winning would not only help the Sixers pick, but also help the Heat pick, pushing the Celtics one game further away from Miami.
• Brooklyn @ New Orleans: Brooklyn is at 15th, 0.5 games from Miami. At this point, I’m hoping Brooklyn wins and passes Miami.
• Charlotte @ Chicago: Charlotte is the team I’m kind of counting on to falter down the stretch and *not* pass Miami, thus preventing Miami from falling to #10, and giving the Sixers a 97%+ chance of keeping that pick.
• Washington @ Minnesota: Minnesota winning here could help the Sixers in two ways: it could put some space between Minnesota and the Sixers in the race for that #2 slot, and it could help push Washington away from that 19th spot, and thus help the OKC pick convey.
• Lakers @ Utah: A Lakers win would be huge, not only to increase the (slight) chance the Lakers pick can fall outside of the top 5, but also to put some space between the Lakers and Sixers in a race for a top pick. This is a game you’d typically think the Lakers would have a chance, but the Jazz are coming off wins against the Spurs and Blazers in their last two games.
• Memphis @ Sacramento: Sacramento (and Orlando) are the teams the Lakers would have to pass in order to fall out of a top 5 slot. Odds are really low, but they’re there.

Following up on last night’s NBA action and how that impacts the Sixers upcoming draft picks:

Sixers pick (currently slotted 2nd):

• Sixers lost to Miami (good): I’m putting this one in the good category, because the value of the Sixers likely top-5 pick is more important than Heat’s pick. Even beyond that, the Heat putting some distance between themselves and Charlotte (10th slot, now 1.5 games up of Miami in the lottery standings) isn’t the worst thing in the world. The loss pulls the Sixers to within 1.5 games of the Knicks for the worst record in the league, and puts them 2.5 up on the Lakers (4th) and 5.5 up on the Magic (5th). Not a whole lot happened in terms of the teams around the Sixers, however, as New York, Minnesota, Lakers, and Orlando were all inactive.

Lakers pick (top 5 protected. Currently slotted 4th):

• Nothing really to report here, outside of the Sixers win. NYK, Min, LAL, and Orlando were all inactive.

Heat’s pick (top 10 protected. Currently 16th):

• Heat won (bad / kinda): The Heat won, which could be either good or bad, depending on your viewpoint. The Heat can have 3 out of Charlotte, Detroit, Indy, and Brooklyn pass them. All 4 passing them and the odds are the Heat keep their pick. 3 out of 4 pass them and the Sixers have very good odds of ending up with the 11th pick. Charlotte, Detroit, and Indy are now in a virtual tie at 22-32, 23-33, and 23-33, respectively, putting them all 1.5 games up on Miami.
• Brooklyn beat Denver (bad / kinda): Brooklyn beat the Nuggets 110-82, with newcomer Thad Young scoring 15. This is good in that 3 out of 4 of the aforementioned teams need to pass Miami, but bad in that I think Brooklyn is one of the teams more likely (along with Charlotte) to falter. The Denver loss pulls the Nuggets to within 5.5 games of the Lakers. The Nuggets are bad, but so are the Lakers, and that’s a ton of ground to make up in 26 games.

Thunder’s pick (top 18 protected. Currently 18th):

• Milwaukee lost (good): Milwaukee’s 87-71 loss to Chicago, their 2nd straight defeat, puts them in a tie with Oklahoma City, bumping OKC to the 18th slot, the last slot where they would keep their pick. All that’s left would be OKC passing Washington (2 games between the two) in order for the Thunder to convey the pick to the Sixers. In theory, you would prefer the Bulls to lose, as they’re currently slotted 22nd and are in theory a team that the Thunder could pass for that 19th spot, but with Milwaukee also being a team that OKC has to pass, it’s more important for Milwaukee to lose than for Chicago to do so.
•  San Antonio lost (good): If the Sixers get the OKC pick, the odds point to OKC passing Washington for the 19th slot. However, after the Spurs surprising 90-81 loss to the Jazz, the Thunder are only 3 games behind the Spurs.
• Los Angeles Clips lost (good): Again, a team the Thunder have an outside shot of passing, as the Clips are 37-20, 5.5 games up on OKC and in the 23rd slot. Extreme far shot, but any time one of those teams gets closer to OKC, it just increases the number of ways the end of the season can shake out with the Sixers getting the pick. That being said, the goal is for the Thunder to ultimately *just* pass one of Washington, San Antonio, Cleveland, Chicago, or LAC, not all of them. So eventually these “long shots” getting closer become a negative.

Tonight’s games:

• Golden State @ Washington: The Thunder are 2 games behind the Wizards for the 19th slot and conveying their pick to the Sixers.
• Pacers @ Thunder: ^– Same as above. An OKC win and a Wiz loss and the Thunder could be within a game of #19. That being said, the Pacers losing would push them further away from Miami for a conveyable lotto pick. This game is really a win-win.
• Cleveland @ Detroit: Impacts the Miami pick. At this point, I think you’re hoping for Detroit to win and pass Miami, pushing the Heat pick closer to the coveted #11 draft slot, although there’s obvious risk in doing so should all 4 of the EC teams between 10 and 15 pass the Heat.