The Sixers have picks — a lot of picks. The Sixers could have a total of 4 1st round draft picks in the 2015 NBA draft, if losses and ping pong balls go their way. 3 of them, however are protected: the Sixers will only get the Lakers 1st round pick this year if it falls outside of the top 5, they will get the Heat pick as long as it doesn’t fall in the top 10, and will get Oklahoma City’s pick if it’s 19+.
So, I will use this space here to track the status of these picks, and how the games from the previous night impact the Sixers upcoming draft picks.
The Sixers own draft pick:
- Sixers lost (good): The Sixers losing to the Magic last night was key, at least for their own draft pick. Orlando, who currently has the 5th worst record at 19-39, is 3.5 games ahead of the Lakers and 5.5 games ahead of the Sixers. The Lakers catching the Magic is an extreme long shot, so the Sixers getting one more game towards locking themselves into a top-4 lottery positioning was big. The loss also puts the Sixers a half-game up on idle Minnesota for the 2nd most ping pong balls, and 2 games behind New York, who lost to the Cavs.
- Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks predictably lost to the Cavs, 101-83. The loss extends the Knicks losing streak to 7 games, and puts them 2 games “up” on the Sixers and 2.5 games up on Minnesota. They have to be the frontrunners for the worst record, at this point.
The Lakers pick (top 5 protected):
- The Lakers won (good): The Lakers beat the Celtics in overtime, which keeps them 3.5 games behind the Magic for the 5h slot and 5.5 behind Sacramento for 6th. The Sixers would have a ~17% chance of getting the pick if the Lakers finish with the 4th worst record, which is about as good as the Sixers chances could realistically hope for. More likely, however, is the Lakers finishing with the 2nd or 3rd worst record, and any Lakers win to prevent that from happening and put more space between the Sixers and the Lakers is a good thing. The Lakers are currently 2 games up on the Sixers, and with how poorly the Lakers had been playing of late, that win last night was big.
The Miami Heat’s Draft Pick (top 10 protected):
- Charlotte lost to Dallas (good): The Heat currently sit at 23-31, in the Eastern Conference playoffs and currently slated to draft 16th. They can miss the playoffs and still (be likely to) convey the pick, as Indiana (11th), Detroit (12th), and Brooklyn (15th) can all pass the Heat and the Sixers still have a 97% chance of keeping the pick. The problem comes in if 4 Eastern Conference teams pass the Heat, and with the Bobcats sitting at the 10th slot at 22-32, only a game worse than Miami, there are a lot of teams really bunched up. Indy and Detroit are playing pretty good basketball of late, at 7-3 and 6-4 in their last 10, respectively. With Bosh out for the rest of the year, them passing Miami has a decent chance of happening, so the Sixers need one of Charlotte or Brooklyn to stumble. The Hornets on a 5 game losing streak could be big for the Sixers.
- Indiana won (unknown): I’m listing this as unknown because it could be either really good or really bad. As I mentioned, if the 3 out of 4 of Charlotte, Indiana, Detroit, and Brooklyn pass Miami, the Sixers could have a very good chance of getting the 11th pick. If all 4 of them pass Miami, that could be bad for the Sixers. My hunch says Indy passes the Heat eventually, so this is a positive. But it would be nice if one of those 4 teams could fall back and put some separation between them and Miami.
- Detroit won (unknown): A surprising win by Detroit over Washington. Detroit is 6-4 in their last 10 and continues their strong play of late. Their situation is the same as Indy above: could be really good if 3 out of 4 pass Miami, really bad if all 4 do.
Oklahoma City pick (top 18 protected):
- Oklahoma City won (good): Oklahoma City, without Kevin Durant, beat a pretty bad Denver team. The win wasn’t all that surprising, but the play of newcomer Enes Kanter was a positive sign. Kanter dropped 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists for the Thunder’s balanced attack, which also included 20 points from Ibaka, 21 points, 17 assists, and 8 rebounds from Westbrook, and 17 points from Dion Waiters off the bench. The win pushes Oklahoma City to 31-25, only a half game behind Milwaukee for the 18th spot, and only 2 games behind Washington for the 19th spot with 26 games left to play. As long as Kevin Durant isn’t out too long, I think there’s a far better chance that the Oklahoma City pick conveys than the 30% chance Sam Hinkie gave at the deadline. The Thunder have won 6 straight and are rolling.
- Milwaukee lost (good): Milwaukee lost to Atlanta, which is good. This was one of those losses, between them playing Atlanta and MCW not playing yet, that you kind of figured would happen. However, with their loss and OKC’s win. that puts OKC ever-so-closer to conveying that pick. The Sixers would *really* prefer to get the pick this year, as the 19th or 20th pick would be much better than the expected 27th-or-so pick OKC will convey if they’re healthy for a full season.
- Washington lost (good): Again, the Wizards losing to the Pistons was good for 2 reasons: it puts the Pistons closer to passing the Heat (which could be either good or bad, depending on what Charlotte, Indy, and Brooklyn do as well), and also puts the Wizards one game closer to the Thunder. Washington is a good team, so the Sixers could use every Wizards loss they can get.
- Cleveland won (bad): The Cleveland win puts them at 35-22, a full 3.5 games ahead of the Thunder for the 20th slot. After Milwaukee and Washington, OKC starts chasing some very good teams, including Cleveland, San Antonio, Portland, and Dallas, which puts even more pressure on OKC catching Washington. I don’t expect OKC to be able to catch Cleveland, but this win is still not good for the Sixers chances.
