Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 9th, 2015

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 2nd):

  • Not much movement here, as all of New York, Philadelphia, and Minnesota had the night off.
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers lost another game that they were winning late. The loss drops the Lakers to 16-46, and they still only have 2 more wins than the Sixers.

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers once again had a lead heading into the 4th quarter, but scored only 16 points in the final frame and lost to the Mavericks.
  • Orlando won (bad): Orlando’s win over Boston, combined with the Lakers loss, puts the Magic 5 wins up on the Lakers. With only 20 games left for the Lakers, the “Lakers watch” section of this feature has pretty much turned into hoping that the Lakers don’t move any higher than the 4th worst record, and thus maintain a 17.2% chance of falling out of the top 5 on lottery night.

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 12th):

  • Detroit lost (good) / Charlotte won (good): Detroit is still 5 wins back of Miami in the 8th slot. At least, it seems, we’re starting to see some separation. Between Indy, Charlotte, Brooklyn, Boston, and Utah, Miami needs to finish with a better record than 2 of them. Charlotte is now in the 16th slot at 28-33, a half-game up on Miami. Charlotte has won 5 in a row.
  • Boston lost (good): Boston is in the 9th slot at 25-36, 3 wins behind Miami. How Boston reacts down the stretch will be key, as Utah, Indy, and Charlotte seem like pretty good bets to finish with a better record than Miami, leaving the Sixers with no margin for Boston or Brooklyn to go on a run.
  • Brooklyn lost (good) / Jazz won (good): Brooklyn lost to the Jazz. As I mentioned yesterday, I think the Jazz finish with a better record than the Nets down the stretch, so I wanted Utah to win here. Utah, 7-3 in their last 10, is now in the 11th slot and only 2 wins behind Miami, who is in the 12th slot after last night’s events.

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Oklahoma City won (good): Another Russell Westbrook triple-double gives the Thunder another win without Kevin Durant, this time a 108-104 win over visiting Toronto. The win puts the Thunder in a tie with Washington for the 18th/19th slot at 35-28.
  • Chicago lost (good): Chicago lost to the Spurs. The combination of the Bulls loss and OKC’s win puts OKC only 3.5 games behind Chicago, just in case Washington goes on a (very unexpected) run here to end the season.

Tonight’s games:

  • Washington @ Charlotte: A Hornets win helps put some separation between them and Miami, and would also break the tie and put OKC alone in the 19th slot.
  • Sacramento @ Atlanta: I suppose, for the sake of the Lakers pick, hope the Kings lose, but this game has very little chance of ultimately being significant with how unlikely it is that the Lakers catch the Kings (5 wins up on the Lakers).
  • Boston @ Miami: Hope Miami wins? I think we need to hope Miami beats some of these bad teams, as wins could be tough to come by down the stretch, and Boston going on a run could doom the Sixers chances of getting the Heat pick. Need Miami to stay in the 11th-12th range, not fall off the map completely.
  • Memphis @ Chicago: Chicago remains a backup plan in case the Wizards go on a tear, which is, of course, unlikely to be necessary.
  • New Orleans @ Milwaukee: Sixers need both teams to lose, unfortunately. N.O. is a game behind OKC for the final playoff spot in the West. Milwaukee is 1.5 games behind OKC in the 17th slot. New Orleans losing here is probably preferable.
  • New York @ Denver: With how unlikely the Lakers catching Denver is, I’m pulling for a Knicks win to help the Sixers (slim) chances of reaching the worst record.
  • Minnesota @ Clippers: Clippers are on a tail end of a back-to-back, so perhaps that gives the Timberwolves a chance. The Wolves are tied with the Sixers in the win column at 14 a piece, and any win by Minnesota would be helpful.

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

About Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today, is a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, a Sixers on-air reporter for 97.3 FM ESPN, as well as an editor at LibertyBallers.com. His writing has also appeared at SBNation.com, Philly.com, RealGM.com, and NBAPlaybook.com, and he has been a guest on 94 WIP, 97.5 FM ESPN, KYW 1060, and CSN Philly. He is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / 215-839-9635 / @DerekBodnerNBA
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