Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 21st, 2015

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Knicks lost (bad) / Sixers won (bad): Nerlens Noel (23 points, 14 rebounds, 5 steals, 3 blocks) was just too much for the Knicks. The win puts the Sixers at 17 wins, tied with the Lakers, 2 more than Minnesota, and 3 more than New York.
  • Magic won (good): The Magic make an appearance in this section of the draft tracker now, as they have only 5 more wins than the Sixers. It should be unlikely that the Sixers catch the Magic, but a few wins here and there from Orlando would slow my panic down a little bit. Beating Portland was a nice surprise.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Sacramento won (bad): Sacramento won, has 6 more wins than both the Sixers and the Lakers. The Lakers aren’t catching them.
  • Orlando won (bad): Again, Orlando’s victory, while good for the Sixers, is bad for the Lakers pick. That being said, I think there’s a better chance that the Sixers catch Orlando than the Lakers do, so I think this is a net-positive at this point.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Indy lost (bad): Indy lost their 4th game in a row, albeit this time having played Cleveland tough on the road. I still think Indy ends up passing Miami, but I would like them to get off the schneid.
  • Miami won (good): Are we at the point where I’m back to rooting for Miami losses? Close. Charlotte’s 3 game losing streak has Miami 2.5 games ahead of them. It’s not just that, though: the Heat are now 2 games up on the Celtics and Pacers as well. The Sixers don’t need Miami to stay in front of all of them, just one of them, so this is looking much better than it was just a few days ago.
  • Brooklyn won (bad): File this in the “somebody had to win” category. Brooklyn won a 3OT game against the struggling Milwaukee Bucks. The Nets are still 3.5 games behind Miami in that 9th slot.
  • Boston lost (good): Another good outcome. I still think Boston ends up passing Miami, but they’ve now lost 2 in a row, giving the Heat a backup option in case Charlotte goes on a run.
  • Charlotte lost (good): Speaking of Charlotte, they’ve now lost 3 in a row, and are 2.5 games behind Miami in that 10th slot. As long as they stay there, the Sixers are in a great spot with that Heat pick. The Hornets have a relatively tough schedule to finish out the season, so this is the Sixers best bet, in m opinion.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

  • Milwaukee lost (good): Milwaukee’s now 5 games back and still playing horrible basketball. It’s to the point where I might not even track them anymore. They’re not passing OKC (and if they do, OKC fell off of a cliff enough that New Orleans will pass them anyway).
  • Raptors lost (good) / Chicago won (bad): One team had to win, but the Raptors loss and OKC win puts the Raptors only 2 wins up on OKC as a backup plan to the Thunder catching Washington. Chicago is at 42 wins and 3 up on OKC.
  • OKC won (good): OKC pulled out a big win over Atlanta, and are now 2 games up on New Orleans for that last spot in the West, 1 game behind Washington, and 2 behind Toronto. They just need to pass one of Washington or Toronto.
  • New Orleans lost (good): New Orleans fell to Golden State, their 2nd loss in a row, dropping them to 2 games behind OKC for that final Western Conference playoff spot.
  • Washington lost (good): Washington lost to the Clippers, and are now only 1 game up on OKC in that 19th spot.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Nets @ Pacers: Go Pacers. Helps Indy pass Miami and keeps Brooklyn away from Miami.
  • Bulls @ Pistons: A Pistons win keeps Chicago only 3 wins up on OKC.
  • Jazz @ Warriors: Go Jazz, I guess. At this point I’m confident enough in Charlotte falling that I may start rooting for the Jazz to win. Also, I have so little confidence in the Jazz finishing with a worse record than Miami that it doesn’t really matter.

About Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today, is a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, a Sixers on-air reporter for 97.3 FM ESPN, as well as an editor at LibertyBallers.com. His writing has also appeared at SBNation.com, Philly.com, RealGM.com, and NBAPlaybook.com, and he has been a guest on 94 WIP, 97.5 FM ESPN, KYW 1060, and CSN Philly. He is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / 215-839-9635 / @DerekBodnerNBA
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