sports.DerekBodner.com »

Monthly Archives: March 2015

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 17th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 17, 2015 - 6:57 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers lost (good): The good: the Sixers picked up a clutch loss. The bad: We had to watch that game. The loss keeps the Sixers a win behind Minnesota for the race for the second most ping pong balls.
  • Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota continues their skid, having now lost 5 in a row. They played this last game without Ricky Rubio and Pekovic. They’re certainly not good enough to be losing key guys at this point.
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers teased us all once again, as they kept the game close all night against the Warriors, only to lose by 3. Lakers still have only 2 more wins than the Sixers.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers missed a(nother) chance to pick up a win on Orlando (4 more wins) and Sacramento (5 more wins). With only 16 games left for the Lakers, you’re really just hoping they don’t move up from 4 at this point.
  • Sacramento lost (good): Sacramento fell to Atlanta, and have now lost 3 in a row. They’re still 5 wins sup on the Lakers.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 11th):

  • Heat won (good): The Heat pulled out a much needed win over Cleveland. It temporarily bumped the Heat into the 15th spot, but the teams behind them are playing really good basketball.
  • Charlotte lost (good) / Utah won (bad): Except maybe Charlotte. Boston and Utah passing Miami isn’t a problem if Charlotte and Brooklyn don’t. With Charlotte’s loss, it drops them to the 10th slot. Really have to hope they struggle down the stretch. Utah’s win puts them in a 4-place tie with Boston, Miami, and Indy for those last 2 playoff spots in the East. Utah has won 6 in a row. I put Utah down as bad just because I want a backup plan, but they’re passing Miami.
  • Boston won (bad): Boston beat the Sixers, which was to be expected. Boston has now won 5 in a row and is tied for a playoff spot (with Miami) in the East.
  • Indy lost (bad): Indy lost to Toronto, which was a bit of a surprise with how well the Pacers have been playing of late. The loss drops them back to that aforementioned tie.
  • Brooklyn won (bad):  Brooklyn won, beating Minnesota. Brooklyn is still 3 wins back of Miami.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

  • OKC lost (bad): OKC lost to Dallas, which decreases their lead over New Orleans to only a half-game.
  • Ibaka injury (really bad): Worse than the loss was the news that Ibaka will see a new specialist, with the expectation that he’ll have surgery, and miss some time.
  • Toronto won (bad): Toronto beat Indy. The Toronto win, along with the OKC loss, puts them 3 games up on OKC in the 21st spot.
  • Washington won (bad): Washington beat Portland, which puts the Wizards 2 games up on OKC.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Spurs @ Knicks: Go Knicks.
  • Bucks @ Pelicans: Either team winning pulls them closer to OKC, but it’s more likely that New Orleans is a problem than Milwaukee. Go Bucks.
  • Magic @ Rockets: Go Rockets.
  • Hornets @ Clippers: Go Clippers.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 16th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 16, 2015 - 9:58 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota continues their skid, this time a (predictable) loss to San Antonio. The Wolves have lost 4 in a row and remain one win less than the Sixers for the 2nd most ping pong balls.
  • Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks lost to the Suns. They have 13 wins, 2 less than the Sixers.
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers lost another heartbreaker (for Sixers fans). The Lakers used a 16-2 run to pull within 2 with 30 seconds left, but then gave up an easy layup to Dennis Schroder to make it a foul shooting competition. Lakers stay at 17 wins, only 2 more than the Sixers.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers lost (bad): It seems like whenever the Lakers have a chance to pick up a game on Orlando, they blow it late in the game. Los Angeles remained close through the first half, had a disastrous 3rd, then had a comeback fall short.
  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando fell to Cleveland. Had the Lakers won, the Lakers would have been within 3 games of the 5th slot.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 11th):

  • No games of significance happened last night, as all of Miami, Boston, Charlotte, Indiana, and Brooklyn had the night off.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

  • OKC won (good) / Chicago lost (good): Perfect outcome. The OKC win bumps them back into the playoffs and in the 18th slot. Chicago, only 4-6 in their last 10, is only 2 wins up on the Thunder, just in case the Thunder can’t catch the Wizards.
  • New Orleans lost (good): New Orleans fell to Denver, who have now won 4 in a row (and are likely more of a threat to pass Miami than Brooklyn is). The Pelicans loss puts them a full game behind OKC in that crucial race for the last playoff spot out West.
  • Raptors lost (good): Raptors continue to struggle, as they lost to Portland and are only 2-8 in their last 10. Like Chicago, Toronto is now only 2 wins ahead of OKC. So OKC just needs to stay in front of New Orleans and pass one of Washington (1 win up), Chicago (2 wins up), or Toronto (2 wins up) for that pick to convey to theSixers this year. 16 games to go …

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Sixers @ Boston: Huge, huge, game. The Knicks, Wolves, and Lakers keep losing, giving the Sixers little margin for error, and the Sixers winning would hurt their positioning. That being said, with Boston tied with Miami, a Sixers win does at least help that. The Sixers pick is more important, but I think the odds of the Lakers passing the Sixers is less than Boston passing Miami. Either outcome makes me nervous.
  • Raptors @ Pacers: A Pacers win keeps them above Miami, and also helps push Toronto further back towards OKC as a backup plan.
  • Blazers @ Wizards: A Wizards loss (combined with an OKC win) could put OKC in that coveted 19th spot, thus conveying their pick to the Sixers.
  • Cleveland @ Miami: At this point, I’m hoping that Miami wins.
  • Nets @ Wolves: A Wolves win helps in two ways: It could push them past the Sixers, and also keep the Nets away from Miami.
  • OKC @ Dallas: Go OKC. Need some breathing room between OKC and New Orleans, and need OKC to catch Washington. Would prefer OKC not to pass more than 1 or Washington, Chicago, or Toronto, but right now just make that pick convey.
  • Charlotte @ Utah: At this point, I’m expecting Utah to pass Miami, so I hope Charlotte stumbles big time down the stretch.
  • Atlanta @ Sacramento: Sacramento is 5 games up on the Lakers in the 6th slot, so hoping they lose, even if the odds are very low.
  • Lakers @ Golden State: Go Lakers!

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 15th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 15, 2015 - 9:42 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers lost (good): With how much the Knicks and Wolves are struggling, and how easy the Sixers upcoming schedule is, any loss (especially against a bad team) is good for the Sixers positioning.
  • Knicks lost (bad): Knicks got crushed by Golden State, keeping them at 13 wins, 2 less than the Sixers.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Sacramento lost (good): Sacramento collapsed big time against Washington. The outcome is overall bad for the Sixers, but does help keep Sacramento within 5 wins of the Lakers.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 11th):

  • Nets won (bad): The Nets shouldn’t be a factor down the stretch, but their win keeps them at the 9th slot and 3 wins behind Miami.
  • Boston won (bad) / Pacers lost (bad): Boston continues their surge, this time beating the red-hot Pacers in Indy. Boston is now tied with Miami and Utah for the 10th-12th spots.
  • Utah won (bad): Utah also beat the Pistons, who have lost 10 in a row. Utah is 8-2 in their last 10 and also tied with Miami. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Utah passes Miami. Really need one of Charlotte (one less loss than Miami) or Boston to stumble to get that pick, most likely Charlotte.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 14th):

  • Milwaukee lost (good): Milwaukee shouldn’t be a factor, but they are 17th, so losses help.
  • Washington won (bad): Washington had a huge comeback against Sacramento in a game which featured a 38 point swing. Washington is now 2 wins up on OKC.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Chicago @ OKC: An OKC win is critical, as it would pull them a half-game closer to Washington, and would pull them to within 3 of Chicago.
  • Denver @ New Orleans: Need the Pelicans to lose to get the Thunder into the playoffs.
  • Cleveland @ Orlando: Orlando losses keep the hope of the Lakers falling to #5 alive.
  • Minnesota @ San Antonio: The Wolves have a win less than the Sixers and have the 2nd worst record in the league. Go Minnesota.
  • Portland @ Toronto: Toronto losses help keep a backup plan open in case the Wizards (who are suddenly playing good defense) finish better than the Thunder.
  • Knicks @ Phoenix: The Knicks have 2 less wins than the Sixers. Go Knicks.
  • Hawks @ Lakers: Need the Lakers to win not only to give them a chance to catch Orlando (4 more wins), but also to stay away from the Sixers (Lakers have 2 more wins than the Sixers).

Sixers Draft Tracker – March 14th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 14, 2015 - 1:08 pm |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers won (bad): The Sixers had a miraculous comeback against the Kings, dominating the end of the 3rd / beginning of the 4th. Fun to watch, but has some negative consequences on the Sixers draft positioning.
  • Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota fell to OKC, which was good for the OKC pick, but now gives them 1 less win than the Sixers. After a good stretch of play the Wolves have now lost 7 of their past 8 games.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Sacramento lost (good): While the Sixers winning was bad, the Kings losing did at least keep them within 5 games of the Lakers, not that it’s likely to matter.
  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando also lost to Boston. Another costly game, as the surging Celtics are far too close to Miami, but it does keep Orlando only 4 wins up on the Lakers.
  • Minnesota lost (good): Again, Minnesota losing is a net-negative, as it pushes them to the #2 spot ahead of the Sixers. It does, at least, keep the Lakers from moving up from the 4th slot. The Sixers have a 17.2% chance at getting the pick if the Lakers stay at 4, only 4% if they move up to 3.
  • Detroit lost (good): Detroit lost their 9th in a row and have 6 more wins than the Lakers.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 12th):

  • Charlotte won (bad): Again, any team in this range (with the exception of the Pacers), I want to lose. With Miami just a half-game up on Boston for the 10th slot, I’m not relying on an one team to falter. And with Boston and Utah playing so well, it might *have* to be Charlotte who stumbles. Any Charlotte win is bad at this point.
  • Boston won (bad): Boston’s win over Orlando has them only 1 win back of Miami in the 10th slot. 11th = 97.1% chance the Sixers get it, 10th = 9.1%. Panic.
  • Miami lost (bad): I’ve mentioned before how close this is, and how well Utah and Boston are playing. Miami might need to play better than mediocre ball for the Sixers to get the pick.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 14th):

  • OKC won (good): I may have preferred Minnesota to win, but the OKC win at least helps their pick. They’re now tied with New Orleans for the last playoff seed in the West and only a game behind Washington.
  • Chicago lost (good): Again, I would have preferred Chicago beat Charlotte, but at least it moves Chicago (4 wins up on OKC) closer as a backup plan.
  • Toronto won (bad): Toronto ended a 4 game skid, which put them in as a team to watch. The win keeps them 3 wins up on OKC as another backup plan to catching Washington.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Nets @ Sixers: Either outcome helps, as any loss for the 9th slotted Nets keeps them further away from Miami, but Brooklyn has lost 5 in a row and shouldn’t be much of a threat. With the Sixers now in the 3rd slot, and a whole slew of winnable games coming up, some losses here would be key.
  • Celtics @ Pacers: Pacers win not only keeps them up on Miami, but also slows the Celtics down. The C’s are in the 10th slot and only a half game behind Miami (Panic!)
  • Kings @ Wizards: The Kings are theoretically still in play with the Lakers pick, as they have 5 more wins with 18 left to play. But I can’t see that happening. The Wizards are a game up on OKC in the 19th slot.
  • Bucks @ Grizzlies: Bucks, while in the 17th slot, have 2 less wins than OKC and are playing poor basketball. A loss helps, but you shouldn’t have to worry too much even if they pull off the win.
  • Pistons @ Jazz: Pistons have lost 9 in a row and are now in that 7th spot with 6 more wins than the Lakers. Even with the Pistons freefall I can’t see them losing 6 games on the Lakers, and with how Miami’s struggling I pretty much want *all* teams in that range to lose a couple.
  • Knicks @ Warriors: Go Knicks.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 13th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 13, 2015 - 10:02 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 2nd):

  • Knicks won (good) / Lakers lost (bad): The Knicks win does pull the Sixers to within 1 game of the Knicks for the most ping pong balls. I just don’t have much confidence in the Knicks winning more games than the Sixers down the stretch. The Lakers loss keeps them at 3 more wins than the Sixers and in the 4th spot.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers missed a chance to pick up a win on the Magic and remain 4 wins behind them for the 5th slot.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 12th):

  • Indiana won (good): Indy beat Milwaukee, which was good for both the Heat pick and the OKC pick. Indy has now won 7 in a row and is a full game up on Miami, and in the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
  • Utah won (good): Utah dominated the Dwight Howard-less Rockets, with Rudy Gobert putting up a monster line (19 points, 22 rebounds, 4 blocks). Utah is now 8-2 in their last 10, on a 4 game winning streak, and a safe bet to pass Miami down the stretch.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Milwaukee lost (good): Milwaukee lost. They still have a worse record than the Thunder, and, as long as OKC passes New Orleans, I don’t see them being too much of a concern. If OKC doesn’t pass New Orleans, it doesn’t matter.
  • Washington won (bad): Washington beat the Grizzlies. This puts Washington 1.5 games (and 2 wins) up on OKC. Washington has now won 2 in a row, and them turning their fortunes around would be bad for the Sixers.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Sacramento @ Sixers: The Kings are 5 wins up on the Lakers in the 6th slot, but the Knicks/Sixers/Wolves are too close. A Sixers loss would be better here.
  • Bulls @ Hornets: A Bulls loss keeps them as a backup plan to OKC catching Washington, but the Heat falling into the top-10 is a bigger concern of mine. Go Charlotte.
  • Orlando @ Boston: An Orlando win hurts the Lakers chances of falling out of the top 5, but a Boston loss could impact the Sixers ability to get the Heat pick. One of these teams have to win 😦
  • Miami @ Toronto: Miami’s in this weird spot where you want them to lose, but not too much. Still, with how well Indy and Utah are playing, I don’t think you have to worry about Miami winning too much.
  • Minnesota @ OKC: Another lose-lose. Minnesota wins are good for the Sixers pick, but OKC losses are bad for the OKC pick, and I’m starting to become worried about OKC passing both New Orleans and Washington.
  • Golden State @ Denver: Lakers aren’t catching Denver, but hope for a Denver loss, I guess.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 12th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 12, 2015 - 9:35 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 2nd):

  • Sixers lost (good): The Sixers lost to the Bulls, keeping them 2 wins off of “the pace” set by the Knicks in the race for the most ping pong balls.
  • Wolves lost (bad): The Wolves fell to the Suns, a disappointment as it was a winnable game. The Wolves remain at 14 wins, a half-game back of the Sixers.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando fell to Milwaukee, keeping them 4 wins up on the 4th slotted Lakers.
  • Sacramento won (bad): Sacramento had a somewhat surprising win over Charlotte, putting them at 22-41, 5 wins more than the 17-win Lakers.
  • Denver won (bad): Denver was another team with a surprising win, this time over the Hawks. The win gives Denver 24 wins, 7 more than the Lakers. I’ll probably stop covering them in this section going forward, as making up 7 wins in 19 games is virtually impossible, unless you’re chasing the Mets.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 12th):

  • Charlotte lost (good): Charlotte’s loss keeps them at 28 wins, dropping them to the 12th slot. Charlotte is so streaky that I’m not sure how to cheer when they play. With how well Utah and Boston are playing (8-2 and 7-3 in their last 10), I’m going to start hoping that Charlotte loses, just in case both Boston and Utah pass the Heat.
  • Boston won (bad): Boston is now 7-3 in their last 10 and have won 7 of their past 8 home games, putting them at 27-36 on the season, only 2 wins behind Miami. I think there’s a very real possibility that Boston passes Miami, in which case we need Utah or Charlotte to stumble.
  • Brooklyn lost (good) / Miami won (good): Brooklyn losing keeps them at 25 wins which, with the Miami win, is 4 wins less than the Heat. Brooklyn is now pretty firmly set in the 9th slot, which means the Heat only have to finish with a better record than one of Utah, Boston, and Charlotte for the Sixers to have a good chance of getting the pick.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • OKC lost (bad): OKC fell to the Clippers. This, combined with Bucks win and the Bulls win, made for a bad night. The loss drops the 35-29 Thunder out of the playoffs if the season ended today, as the idle Pelicans (36-29) are now in. They’re still only a game out of the 19th slot, but I think the Pelicans are their biggest threat right now, not the Wizards or the Bucks. Durant received a checkup, and should be back in 1-2 weeks.
  • Milwaukee won (bad): Milwaukee had what I would call a schedule win, beating the Magic at home. They still have a worse record than the Thunder and aren’t playing terribly good ball. I don’t worry about them too much.
  • Chicago won (bad): Chicago also had a schedule win, although with Rose out and Noah sitting they almost blew it. Chicago is now 4 wins up on OKC as the backup plan to catching Washington, but the Thunder failing to catch the Wizards is less of a concern than the Pelicans beating out the Thunder for the last playoff spot out west.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Milwaukee @ Indiana: An Indy win helps keep them ahead of Miami and in the playoffs, and Milwaukee losses help the Sixers get the Thunder’s pick.
  • Memphis @ Washington: Washington losses help get the Thunder out of the top-18.
  • Houston @ Utah: Hoping Houston slows down Utah’s roll just a little bit, but I see the Jazz passing the Heat regardless.
  • Knicks @ Lakers: SOMEBODY HAS TO WIN! I’m probably pulling for the Lakers, as I just don’t see New York winning enough games over the rest of the season for the Sixers to catch them, and the Lakers have some winnable games coming up.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 11th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 11, 2015 - 9:38 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

 

Sixers pick (currently 2nd):

  • Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks spoiled on almost-perfect day by falling to the Jazz. It was closer than I expected, but the loss puts the Knicks 2 games up on the Sixers for the race to the most ping-pong balls.
  • Lakers won (good): They did it! They finally did it! After teasing Sixers fans for the past week, the Lakers pulled off an important win. The loss puts the Sixers 2.5 games up on the Lakers (3 wins) to try to keep them pinned in the 4th slot (or, preferably, worse).

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

 

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers won (good): The Lakers win, combined with Orlando’s loss, puts the Lakers within 4 games of the Magic again. Moving out of the 4th spot into the 5th would be huge for the Sixers chances. The Lakers have been playing better of late, and it’s nice to see them not blow a lead down the stretch for a change.
  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando got crushed by the surging Pacers. The Sixers really need the Magic to collapse.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

 

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 12th):

  • Indiana won (good): Indy has now won 9 of their past 10 and 6 in a row, and, at 29-34, should have Miami in their rear-view mirror from here on out.
  • Brooklyn lost (good): Brooklyn is 9th, and one of the teams that absolutely cannot pass Miami. While a New Orleans loss would have been good for the OKC pick, it does help the Miami pick considerably. The Nets are on a 4 game losing streak and 3 wins behind Miami.
  • Utah won (bad): I’m putting this down as bad because, in a perfect world, having a little bit of a margin for error would be nice. As it stands, this is a good result as long as neither Brooklyn or Boston pass Miami, I’m just getting nervous that won’t hold true. The Jazz, at 27-36 and 8-2 in their last 10, are only a game behind Miami, and a virtual guarantee to pass the Heat by the end of the season.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

 

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • New Orleans won (bad): New Orleans won, putting them in a tie (and one win up) on the Thunder for the last playoff spot in the West. The next closest Western Conference playoff team to the Thunder is Dallas at 41-25, 6 wins up on OKC. Not good. The positive: OKC is 7-3 in ther last 10, even with Durant missing time. Just need New Orleans to come back down to Earth.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

 

Tonight’s games:

  • Chicago @ Sixers: Chicago losing a game on OKC isn’t the worst thing in the world, but a Sixers loss is more important.
  • Sacramento @ Charlotte: With how well Utah is playing, a Charlotte loss wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. That being said, a Sacramento loss keeps them within 4 wins of the Lakers. Either outcome presents both positives and negatives.
  • Memphis @ Boston: Boston needs to lose, as they can’t pass Miami.
  • Brooklyn @ Miami: Big game. A Miami win and a Brooklyn (and Boston) loss could put some much needed breathing room between Miami and a top-10 lottery seed. Hassan Whiteside will miss the game, as he’s serving a 1 game suspension.
  • Orlando @ Milwaukee: Milwaukee losing helps keep them at the 17th slot and away from OKC, but an Orlando loss helps keep the dream of the Lakers pick alive.
  • Clippers @ OKC: With New Orleans surging, the Sixers need OKC wins badly.
  • Atlanta @ Denver: A Denver loss keeps them 6 wins up on the Lakers.
  • Wolves @ Phoenix: Wolves are tied in the win column with the Sixers, so a win would be great. Phoenix has been struggling of late, so this is an opportunity.