Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Results that impacted the Sixers picks:

• Sixers lost to Miami (good)
• Brooklyn beat Orlando (bad)
• Knicks lost to Detroit (bad)

Sixers pick:

The Sixers lost to the Heat, but it didn’t matter. With the Knicks loss to Detroit, the Sixers were locked into the third worst record. They will have 156 lottery balls in May’s lottery, giving them a 15.6% chance at the top pick, a 46.9% chance at a top-3 pick, a 96% at a top-5 pick, and a guarantee of a top-6 pick.

Lakers pick:

The Lakers finished with the 4th worst record. The Sixers will need 2 of the 5-14 in the lottery to jump in the top-3, pushing Los Angeles down to the 6th pick. There is a 17.2% chance of that happening.

If the Sixers do not get the Lakers pick this season, the pick will be top-3 protected in 2016, top-3 protected again in 2017, and fully unprotected in 2018.

Miami pick:

Miami beat the Sixers, but with Brooklyn’s win over Orlando, it didn’t matter. Miami will finish alone with the 10th worst record. In order to get Miami’s draft pick, the Sixers will need a team in 11-14 in the lottery to jump into the top-3. There is a 9.1% chance of that happening.

If the Sixers do not get Miami’s pick this year, the pick will once again be top-10 protected in next year’s 2016 draft. If the pick still isn’t conveyed, the pick will be fully unprotected in 2017.

Oklahoma City pick:

Oklahoma City finished the season out of the playoffs in the Western Conference, putting them at 14th in the lottery. The Sixers will not get Oklahoma City’s pick this year.

The protection on the pick lessens next season. The pick is only top-15 protected in the 2016 draft. It would then be top-15 protected again in 2017. If the pick is still not conveyed, it would turn into a 2nd round pick in 2017 and a 2nd round pick in 2018.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Rooting overview:

Miami beat Sixers, Orlando beat Brooklyn, Knicks beat Detroit.

Sixers pick:

The Sixers currently have the 3rd worst record, but, if the Sixers lose and the Knicks win, could tie New York for the 2nd worst record. The two teams would then split 354 ping pong balls, and a coin flip would determine who gets the extra ball, and also who goes first in the draft in the unlikely event that neither team ends up in the top 3. The Sixers cannot catch Minnesota, and the Lakers cannot catch the Sixers.

Lakers pick:

The Lakers have 3 more wins than the Sixers and 4 less wins than the Magic and are locked into the 4th worst record. That means the Sixers will need two teams in the 5-14 slots of the lottery to move into the top-3 in order for the Lakers pick, which is top-5 protected, to fall to 6. That has a 17.2% chance of happening.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it becomes top-3 protected in next year’s 2016 draft, would be top-3 protected in 2017, and fully unprotected in 2018.

Miami pick:

Miami is now locked into finishing either 10th or 11th. The only team that they can catch is Brooklyn.

Brooklyn finishes up their season tonight against Orlando. The Sixers need Miami to win their game against the Sixers, and they need Brooklyn to lose against Orlando. If either Miami loses or Brooklyn wins, Miami will finish with the 10th worst record.

If Miami wins and Brooklyn loses, then Miami and Brooklyn will tie for the 10th worst record. They will split 18 ping pong balls, with each getting 9. A coin flip will then determine who gets a 10th ping pong ball, and also who drafts first if neither team moves into the top-3.

That 2nd result of the coin flip is the key, as neither team will have a great chance of moving into the top-3 (~3.5% chance for either team). The coin flip, however, will have drastic implications on the Sixers chances of getting the 10th pick. If Miami wins the coin flip and drafts first, the Sixers will have a 9.1% chance of getting the pick. If Miami loses the coin flip and drafts 2nd, the Sixers will have a 97.1% chance of getting the pick.

With Indiana winning last night, Miami was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Brooklyn wins a tiebreaker with Indiana, and still has something to play for tonight.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it will be top-10 protected again next year before becoming fully unprotected in 2017.

Oklahoma City pick:

Oklahoma City is still tied with New Orleans for the last playoff spot out West, but they are 2 wins behind Washington with only 1 game remaining. Because of that, Oklahoma City’s pick cannot fall past 18th. Since the pick is top-18 protected, the Sixers cannot get OKC’s pick this season.

The protection on the pick lessens next season. The pick is only top-15 protected in the 2016 draft. It would then be top-15 protected again in 2017. If the pick is still not conveyed, it would turn into a 2nd round pick in 2017 and a 2nd round pick in 2018.

Last Night’s Games

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• No games impacted the Sixers draft pick last night.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Pacers won (bad): The Pacers double overtime victory over Washington puts them 2 games up with only 1 game left to play, and thus no longer an option for the Heat to catch. It also eliminates the Miami Heat from playoff contention.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Tonight’s games:

• Miami @ Sixers: The Sixers really, really, really need to lose this game. Not only can the Sixers still catch New York (and gain up to 22 more ping pong balls in the process), but losing can also keep alive the hope of getting Miami’s pick. Any Sixers player who has a hangnail could be liable to be in street clothes tonight. Unfortunately, as Miami was eliminated from the playoffs, they could (should) very well take the same approach. Their options are miss the playoffs and potentially lose their pick, or miss the playoffs and likely get the 10th pick. It’s a huge game for Miami, too.
• Orlando @ Brooklyn: Another huge game. Brooklyn would win a tiebreaker with the Pacers, so they still have a chance at the playoffs, and thus something to play for tonight. And they’re going up against an Orlando team that has lost 3 straight and has nothing to play for. If the Sixers want to get the Miami pick (without relying on lottery magic), they need Orlando to somehow win this game tonight.
• Detroit @ Knicks: New York’s 2 game winning streak has them only one game away from the Sixers. If the Knicks can beat Detroit, and the Sixers lose to Miami, then the Sixers and Knicks will be tied for the 2nd worst record.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Sixers pick:

The Sixers currently have the 3rd worst record, but, if the Sixers lose and the Knicks win, could tie New York for the 2nd worst record. The two teams would then split 354 ping pong balls, and a coin flip would determine who gets the extra ball, and also who goes first in the draft in the unlikely event that neither team ends up in the top 3. The Sixers cannot catch Minnesota, and the Lakers cannot catch the Sixers.

Lakers pick:

The Lakers have 3 more wins than the Sixers and 4 less wins than the Magic and are locked into the 4th worst record. That means the Sixers will need two teams in the 5-14 slots of the lottery to move into the top-3 in order for the Lakers pick, which is top-5 protected, to fall to 6. That has a 17.2% chance of happening.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it becomes top-3 protected in next year’s 2016 draft, would be top-3 protected in 2017, and fully unprotected in 2018.

Miami pick:

Miami is now locked into finishing 10th, 11th, or 15th as Miami cannot move up to 9th (Charlotte), and they can only catch Brooklyn (1 game left) or Indy (2 games left), so those are now the 3 teams (Miami, Indy, Brooklyn) that Sixers fans need to focus on.

(The reason Miami cannot finish 12th, 13th, or 14th, but can finish 15th, is because, while Miami can make the playoffs, they are guaranteed to have a worse record than Utah, Phoenix, and Oklahoma City/New Orleans. Lottery teams always have better draft picks than playoff teams, even if they have a better record).

Indy has 2 games left (Washington and at Memphis). In order for Miami to catch them, Miami has to beat the Sixers on Wednesday and Indy has to lose both of their remaining games. Indy is playing two relatively tough teams, but Washington has nothing to play for, and Indy has won 5 in a row, so the odds don’t look very good.

Brooklyn has been struggling a bit of late, having lost 2 in a row, including a game against Chicago at home that wasn’t very competitive. But the Nets finish off their season with the lowly Magic and still have a chance at the playoffs, so this again looks like a long shot.

If Miami ties either of these two teams, the two teams will split lottery balls (9 balls each, with the winner of a coin flip getting a 10th ball). Assuming neither team moves up into the top 3, a coin flip will determine who drafts 10th and who drafts 11th. The coin flips usually happen a few days after the regular season ends.

One of these 3 teams will make the playoffs in the horrible Eastern Conference. Since Miami cannot pass any of these teams outright, the only chance Miami has of making the playoffs is in a 3-way tie. The first tiebreaker when multiple teams are tied is “better winning percentage in all games among tied teams”. Miami would win that tiebreaker, as they are 5-3 against Indy and Brooklyn (1-3 vs Indy, 4-0 vs Brooklyn). Indy is 4-3 (3-1 vs Miami, 1-2 vs Brooklyn) and Brooklyn is 2-5 (0-4 vs Miami, 2-1 vs Indy). Indy would have the playoff tiebreaker over Miami if only those two teams were tied, but that is a scenario that cannot happen.

If Indiana wins tonight, then Miami is eliminated from the playoffs, which would have huge ramifications on Wednesday’s Sixers vs Heat game. Indy can win and Miami can still catch Brooklyn (Miami win vs Sixers, Brooklyn loss vs Orlando), but Miami’s motivation to play hard on Wednesday takes a big hit if they’re eliminated tonight.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it will be top-10 protected again next year before becoming fully unprotected in 2017.

Oklahoma City pick:

Oklahoma City is still tied with New Orleans for the last playoff spot out West, but they are 2 wins behind Washington with only 1 game remaining. Because of that, Oklahoma City’s pick cannot fall past 18th. Since the pick is top-18 protected, the Sixers cannot get OKC’s pick this season.

The protection on the pick lessens next season. The pick is only top-15 protected in the 2016 draft. It would then be top-15 protected again in 2017. If the pick is still not conveyed, it would turn into a 2nd round pick in 2017 and a 2nd round pick in 2018.

Last Night’s Games

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• Sixers lost (good): The Sixers lost, which keeps them in play to move up from the 3rd worst record into a tie for the 2nd worst record, at which point they would split ping-pong balls with the Knicks and, if neither team landed in the top 3, a coin flip would determine who picks first.
• Knicks won (good): The Knicks won their 2nd straight, putting them at 17 wins and, surprisingly, still capable of catching the Sixers for the 3rd worst record in the league.
• Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota losing to New Orleans means that the Sixers cannot catch the Wolves, and the Wolves will have, at a minimum, tied for the worst record in the league.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Charlotte lost (good): Charlotte’s loss and Miami’s win means Charlotte (9th worst record) cannot pass Miami.
• Miami won (good): Miami beat Orlando, leaving them 1 game behind Brooklyn and 1.5 behind Indy. Miami needs to beat the Sixers on Wednesday AND one of Brooklyn (plays Orlando) or Indy (plays Washington and @Memphis) needs to lose out, at which point the Sixers fate would (likely) be determined by a coin flip, barring the unlikely (~9%) chance that one of those teams move up into the top 3.
• Brooklyn lost (good): Brooklyn’s loss keeps them in play. They’ve now lost 2 in a row, but with an easy game against Orlando to close out the season, the Sixers are going to need some luck.
• Utah won (bad): Utah’s victory over Dallas (who rested Chandler and Dirk) means that the Heat cannot catch Utah.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Tonight’s games:

• Washington @ Indiana: If the Pacers win this, then Miami cannot catch Indy. Besides that, it also means that Miami will be eliminated from the playoffs and will have nothing to play for Wednesday against the Sixers. Washington is locked into the 5th seed and has nothing to play for, increasing the chance that the Pacers pull this game out.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• New York lost (bad): New York lost, and has 3 wins less than the Sixers with 3 games left to play.
• Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota lost, keeping the Wolves at 2 less wins than the Sixers with 3 games remaining.
• Lakers won (good): On the positive side, the Lakers beating the Wolves puts the Lakers at 3 more wins than the Sixers with the Sixers only having 3 games left to play. Any 1 Sixers loss or 1 Lakers win guarantees the Sixers no worse than the 3rd worst record.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

• The Lakers have no chance of moving down from 4, and are currently 1 Sixers loss or 1 Lakers win away from being locked into that #4 spot.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Charlotte lost (good): Charlotte fell to Atlanta, putting them 2 wins behind Miami in the 9th slot. At the very least, it appears Miami will not fall further than 10th.
• Boston won (bad): Be angry at Cleveland for a half-hearted effort. The win, in Cleveland, puts Boston 2 wins up on Miami, all but eliminating them as an option.
• Indianapolis won (bad): Indy pulled out a close one against Detroit, putting the a full game up on Miami, tied with Utah at 11/12.
• Brooklyn won (bad): Brooklyn demolished Washington, who were playing without John Wall. Washington briefly looked like they were making a comeback, then GOT OUTSCORED 42-18 IN THE 4TH QUARTER. Like Boston, Brooklyn is 2 games up on Miami and all but removed as an option. The good news: Miami making the playoffs would be extremely tough, and the Heat pick would be in the 11/12 range if the Sixers do get it. The bad news: Miami still has to pass one of Utah or Indy (both 1 game up), and with the chances of the playoffs fading and the chance to prevent losing their pick, who knows how much effort they’ll give in these last few games. There could be an epidemic of injuries in South Beach.
• Utah lost (good): Utah lost in the closing seconds to Memphis, pulling them to within a game of Miami. With Miami’s easy schedule, and Utah’s tough schedule, they’re probably Sixers fans best hope, and that loss last night was huge.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• Raptors won (bad): The Raptors win puts them 4 wins up with 3 OKC games remaining, thus removing them as an option for OKC to pass. If the Sixers want the OKC pick this year, OKC is going to have to pass Washington (while staying in front of New Orleans).
• Washington lost (good): At the very least, Washington’s loss to Brooklyn keeps the Sixers chances of getting the OKC pick alive. OKC is now 2 games back of Washington. With John Wall not playing and the Wizards having a relatively tough schedule (Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs), the dream is still alive.
• New Orleans won (bad): This is good in that it forces OKC to continue to try, but with only 3 games remaining, we don’t really have to worry about OKC clinching a playoff spot anymore, and I wouldn’t mind a little bit of separation now, especially with Jrue Holiday returning for the Pelicans.
• OKC won (good): The OKC win keeps them tied with New Orleans for the last playoff spot out West and moves them to within 2 of Washington.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Tonight’s games:

• New York @ Orlando: The Knicks have to win out for the Sixers to have a shot at catching them. In other words, hope the Knicks win here, but it’s not likely to matter.
• Raptors @ Miami: Need a Miami win here in the worst way. Every game, at this point, is huge, and with Miami unlikely to catch Boston or Brooklyn there’s not much of a consequence to Miami winning. If Miami is eliminated from the playoffs, all hope might die with that.
• Sixers @ Chicago: A Sixers loss locks them in as no worse than the 3rd worst record.
• Utah @ Portland: Utah losing is the best hope for the Sixers getting that Miami pick. Good news: Utah is traveling on the tail end of a back-to-back. Bad news: Aldridge isn’t playing for Portland.
• Minnesota @ Golden State: There’s very little shot of the Sixers catching Minnesota, but go Wolves anyway.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• No games impacted the Sixers pick.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

• No games impacted the Lakers pick.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Miami lost (bad): Miami lost to Chicago, putting them in 10th, 0.5 games worse than Indy. They’re also now 1.5 away from Utah, Boston, and Brooklyn. The Heat have one more relatively difficult game (Raptors), then finish out the season with Orlando and Philadelphia.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• No games impacted the OKC draft pick.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Tonight’s games:

• Toronto @ Orlando: It’s not mathematically impossible for OKC to catch Toronto (4 wins back, 4 remaining), and Orlando is now no longer in play, so go Orlando (but it’s unlikely to matter).
• Charlotte @ Atlanta: It’s imperative that Charlotte finish with a worse record than Miami, so go Atlanta.
• Boston @ Cleveland: The Sixers need Miami to pass one of Indy (0.5 up on Miami) / Utah(1.5) / Boston (1.5) / Brooklyn (1.5) , and this is a prime opportunity to pick up a half a game on one of them.
• Indiana @ Detroit: Crucial, crucial game. Detroit’s not playing horrible basketball (6-4 in their last 10), but Indy has been playing much better of late now that PG is back. An unexpected loss by Indy would be huge.
• Washington @ Brooklyn: Ugh. A Washington and OKC loss (at home against Sacramento) would make it impossible for the Sixers to get the OKC pick this season, but a Brooklyn loss would really help the Miami pick (Brooklyn has the Bucks, Bulls, and Magic after this). I might hope Washington wins here: The Miami pick being at 11 is a greater concern for me, and the OKC pick is a huge longshot even with a Washington loss. This is a real opportunity to get a real good pick.
• Milwaukee @ New York: Go New York.
• Phoenix @ New Orleans: New Orleans is tied with OKC for the last playoff spot out West, so go Phoenix.
• Sacramento @ OKC: Crucial game. An OKC loss could officially end the Sixers hopes of getting the pick this season.
• Memphis @ Utah: Utah (1.5 games up on Miami) has a tough schedule down the stretch (Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavs, Rockets), so that, combined with Indy’s better play of late, might make them the best chance of being passed by Miami. Go Memphis.
• Wolves @ Lakers: The Lakers have 2 more wins than the Sixers, and the Sixers only have 3 games left to play. How much confidence do you have in the Sixers going no better than 1-2? If you have confidence in the Sixers not winning 2 games (@Bulls, Bucks, Heat), then go Wolves. The Bucks and Heat games could make me a little bit nervous, but I’m a gambling man and would love to catch Minnesota. Go Wolves.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• Knicks lost (bad): The loss keeps the Knicks 3 wins behind the Sixers with 4 games left to play.
• Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers are still 2 wins behind the Sixers. The Sixers need any combination of 2 Philadelphia losses or Los Angeles wins to clinch the 3rd worst record.
• Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota lost to Portland, which keeps them with 2 wins less than the Sixers with 4 left to play.
• Sixers lost (good): The Sixers loss was bad for the OKC pick, but at least it allows them to keep pace with the bottom feeders. The Wolves (8 straight losses), Sixers (7 straight), and Lakers (5 straight) are all on major slides.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

• Orlando won (bad): Orlando’s win over Chicago, with the Lakers loss, gives the Magic 5 more wins than the Lakers with 4 games to play and eliminates the possibility of the Lakers (or Sixers) passing Orlando in wins. This section will be removed from future draft pick trackers.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Boston won (bad): Recap: Sixers need 2 of Charlotte (33-45), Indiana (35-43), Brooklyn (36-42), and Boston (36-42) to finish with a worse record than Miami (35-43). Charlotte seems like a pretty safe bet at this point, as they’re 2 games back with only 4 games left. Just need one more to falter. I don’t think it will be Boston, as Utah and Indiana have tougher schedules to end the season, but a loss would have given me some peace of mind. 3 of those teams finishing with a worse record than Miami wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, anyway, as it would keep Miami in the lottery. It’s 4 finishing with a worse record than Miami where the pick really starts to suffer.
• Brooklyn lost (good): Brooklyn lost, which keeps them 1 game up on Miami. They have a relatively easy schedule to end the season, so they’re not the one I’m counting on to finish with a worse record than Miami.
• Pacers won (bad): The Pacers win, their 3rd straight, has them in a tie with Miami for 10th/11th. The Pacers end the season with OKC, Washington, and Memphis, so hopefully that’s enough to allow Miami to pass them.
• Utah won (bad): Utah won, which keeps them a game ahead of Miami. Indy is the Sixers best chance to finish with a worse record than Miami, but Utah is probably the most likely second option.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• Washington won (bad): The Wizards beat the Sixers. Good for the Sixers pick, bad for the OKC pick. Washington is 3 wins up on OKC with 4 games left to play.
• New Orleans lost (good): New Orleans lost, keeping them in a tie with OKC for the final playoff spot out West.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Tonight’s games:

• Chicago @ Miami: Big game for Miami. Could use a Miami win here, as they need to finish with a better record than Indy or Utah.

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

According to Basketball-reference.com, there is a 17% chance that none of the 3 1st round draft picks owed to the Sixers convey this year.

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• No games were played last night that impacted the Sixers pick.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

• No games were played last night that impacted the Lakers pick.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Brooklyn won (bad): Brooklyn beat the Blazers last night. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games and a full 2 games up on Miami in that 16th spot. This might end up being a good thing if 2 of Charlotte, Indy, Utah, or Boston finish with a worse record than Miami, but right now I want to see 2 teams separate themselves from the pack before I start rooting for anybody in this group to lose.

Standings - Miami Pick

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

• No games were played last night that impacted the OKC pick.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Tonight’s games:

• Charlotte @ Miami: I don’t want Miami to run away with too many wins, but this is one I’m hoping that they pull out. Miami has to win some to move up from the 10th slot, and this would help pin Charlotte down in the 9th spot. A Miami win here would put Charlotte 1.5 games behind Miami, necessitating only 1 other team to hit the skids for the Sixers to have a good shot of getting that pick.
• Golden State @ New Orleans: New Orleans is now only 0.5 games behind OKC for that final playoff spot out West. At this point, I think I’m back to hoping New Orleans loses, especially with OKC playing San Antonio tonight.
• San Antonio @ OKC: The Spurs just waxed OKC a few weeks ago, albeit in San Antonio. Sixers fans are hoping for a drastically different outcome tonight. With OKC 2 games behind Washington with only 5 left to play the Sixers can’t afford OKC to have many more setbacks.
• Minnesota @ Sacramento: With 2 less wins than the Sixers, the Wolves are running out of time to “catch” the Sixers in the win column. If the Sixers are going to move up, they need Minnesota to win this one tonight.
• Lakers @ Clippers: The Sixers have an upcoming game against Washington, one that Sixers fans probably want them to win. With that being the case, the Lakers picking up another win to separate themselves from the Sixers would be great, although tonight probably isn’t going to be the night. Good news: the Lakers (6 games left) have 2 more games remaining to pick up wins than the Sixers (4 games).