Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 26th, 2015

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers won (bad): The Sixers snapped their 16 game road losing streak, giving them 2 wins more than the Wolves and 4 wins more than the Knicks. Catching either team, at this point, is very much a longshot.
  • Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks weren’t even remotely competitive against the Clippers, and have lost 5 in a row and remain at a league-worst 14 wins.
  • Orlando lost (bad): This shouldn’t matter, but with the Sixers win and the Magic loss Orlando is only 4 wins up on the Sixers in that 5th slot.
  • Lakers won (good) / Wolves lost (bad): The Lakers win is great, as it keeps them with 1 win more than the Sixers. The Wolves loss, however, keeps them at 16 wins, 2 less than the Sixers. It seems  as if the best (realistic) outcome will be the Sixers staying at 3.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Kings won (bad): The Kings won, keeping them 7 wins ahead of the Lakers in the 6th slot.
  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando keeps on losing and, at 22 wins, only has 3 more than the Lakers.
  • Lakers won (good): The Lakers won, pulling them to within 3 wins of the Magic with 12 left to play.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Indiana won (good): Indiana won, pulling them to within 2 games of Miami. Really want 2 of Indy/Boston/Charlotte to pass Miami, and Indy and Boston seem like the best bets. I think I’m confident enough in Charlotte not making up 2.5 games on Miami where Indy going on a little bit of a run be great.
  • Brooklyn won (bad) / Charlotte lost (good): If I had to choose, I’d probably want Charlotte to lose here. Both Charlotte and Brooklyn are now 2.5 games behind Miami, and would have to go on pretty good runs to catch the Heat. As long as those two teams stay behind Miami, the odds are the Sixers will get the Heat pick.
  • Miami won (bad) / Boston lost (bad): This one would have been really nice if it went the other way. The Miami win continues to put too much separation between the Heat and Boston / Indiana.
  • Utah lost (bad): Utah lost and is still 2 games behind Miami. As long as Charlotte doesn’t pass Miami, Utah passing them would be beneficial.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Washington lost (good): Washington lost, keeping them a game behind OKC.
  • Chicago won (bad) / Toronto lost (good): Toronto fell again, and they remain only 1 game up on OKC as a backup plan to OKC staying in front of Washington. With the win and OKC loss Chicago is now 2.5 games up on OKC in 21st, and unlikely to be in play.
  • New Orleans lost (bad): Why bad? The loss keeps New Orleans 3.5 games behind OKC, keeping OKC comfortably in that last playoff spot out West. That comfort is my concern. I don’t want OKC resting Westbrook, thus potentially allowing Washington to pass them. We need the Pelicans to keep it close, but ultimately not pass OKC.
  • OKC lost (bad): OKC got destroyed by San Antonio and missed a chance to put another game of separation between them and Washington.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Pacers @ Bucks: Either team losing isn’t exactly optimal. A Pacers loss decreases the chances that they’ll pass Miami, but a Bucks loss pulls Miami closer to passing the 17th-slotted Bucks. I’m probably pulling for the Pacers here, as I really want them to pass Miami.

About Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today, is a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, a Sixers on-air reporter for 97.3 FM ESPN, as well as an editor at LibertyBallers.com. His writing has also appeared at SBNation.com, Philly.com, RealGM.com, and NBAPlaybook.com, and he has been a guest on 94 WIP, 97.5 FM ESPN, KYW 1060, and CSN Philly. He is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / 215-839-9635 / @DerekBodnerNBA
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