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Author Archives: Derek Bodner

About Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today, is a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, a Sixers on-air reporter for 97.3 FM ESPN, as well as an editor at LibertyBallers.com. His writing has also appeared at SBNation.com, Philly.com, RealGM.com, and NBAPlaybook.com, and he has been a guest on 94 WIP, 97.5 FM ESPN, KYW 1060, and CSN Philly. He is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / 215-839-9635 / @DerekBodnerNBA

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – April 6th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | April 6, 2015 - 8:16 am |
1 Comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers lost (good) / New York won (good): The Knicks win doesn’t really matter, as the Sixers aren’t catching them (3 less wins). Where it does help is that it gives the Sixers a loss in a game that you had penciled in as a win. With only 4 games left, it’s looking more and more likely that the Sixers remain at the 3rd worst record, which, with the way it looked a few weeks ago, constitutes a win in my book.
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers got demolished by the Clippers and remain at 20 wins. With the Sixers only having 4 games remaining that should be enough of a cushion, but another Lakers win would be really nice.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers lost (bad): With Orlando’s 2 game winning streak the Lakers are now 4 back of the 5th worst record with only 6 games remaining. They’re not mathematically eliminited from moving back, but it’s not happening.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

  • Miami lost (horrible) / Indiana won (bad): Miami’s loss, combined with Indiana’s win, puts the Heat into a tie for the 10th slot and only 0.5 games behind Charlotte in 9th. The good new is they’re only a game away from Utah and Boston, and 1.5 games away from Brooklyn. The Sixers need the Heat to stay in front of Charlotte and pass one of Indy, Utah, Boston, or Brooklyn, so start rooting for those guys to lose.
  • Utah won (bad): Utah beat Sacramento, putting them a full game up on Miami. If there’s one team I’d like to see stumble down the stretch it’s Utah, because Miami passing them can only bump them up 1 spot, whereas Miami jumping 2 Eastern Conference teams jumps them into the playoffs, and thus up 4 spots.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

  • OKC lost (bad, really bad): OKC lost a close one to Houston, who is playing great ball right now. OKC has now lost 3 in a row and is a full 2 games behind Washington with only 5 games left to play. If they don’t pass either Washington (2 games up) or Toronto (3 games up), the Sixers aren’t getting that pick.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Portland @ Brooklyn: Typically, I’d want Brooklyn to win because I want Miami in 11th or 12th. But right now, I’ll take losses from any of these teams ahead of Miami in the hopes that one stumbles. If I had more confidence in Miami winning I’d be more selective in my rooting interest, but right now, give me losses from any of them.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – April 3rd, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | April 3, 2015 - 11:23 am |
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Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • No games impacted the Sixers pick.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • No games impacted the Lakers pick.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 15th):

  • Miami lost (good): Miami lost, which I’m still marking down as good, but it’s getting close. Miami is now tied for 11th with both Utah and Boston, and only 1.5 up on 10th-slotted Charlotte. As long as Charlotte or Indiana don’t pass Miami, that’s great, but this is going to come down to the wire.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 18th):

  • No games impacted OKC’s pick.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • OKC @ Grizzlies: Another huge game. OKC is tied with Washington in that 18th spot. With Washington playing New York, an OKC win is likely a must to keep pace with the Wizards.
  • Pelicans @ Kings: The Pelicans are only 1.5 games back on OKC, so I think OKC has suffcient pressure to keep trying to win games. I’d probably be okay if the Pelicans lost this game. I want the Pelicans close, but not to pass OKC
  • Hornets @ Pacers: At this point, either team winning is cause for concern. I probably think there’s less of a chance that Indy passes Miami than Charlotte does, so I’m probably rooting for Indy.
  • Knicks @ Wizards: Go Knicks. Really, if the Knicks could find a way to win a game, this would be the one to do it. Not only would the Knicks get a victory (which is unlikely to really matter at this point), but Washington picking up an unexpected loss would be great for the OKC pick.
  • Bucks @ Celtics: The Bucks losing isn’t ideal, but there is now 3 games separating 17th-slotted Milwaukee with 15th-slotted Miami. Boston is tied with Miami, and I’m still hoping that they pass Miami, but this whole situation is getting too close for comfort again, with Miami only 2 games up on the 9th worst record and 1.5 games up on the 10th worst.
  • Raptors @ Nets: The Raptors aren’t really in play anymore with the OKC pick, as they’re 3 games up on OKC, but keeping them as a backup plan would be great. A Nets win also increases the chances they finish with a better record than Miami, which would help the Miami pick end up in 11-12 rather than 15-16.
  • Pistons @ Bulls: Like the Raptors, the Bulls are 3 games up on OKC. They’re unlikely to be in play, but either of them falling back and opening up a backup plan to OKC finishing with a better record than Washington would be great.
  • Magic @ Wolves: Big game. A Wolves win keeps open two prayers: that the Sixers could end up with the 2nd worst record, and that the Lakers could catch Orlando.
  • Blazers @ Lakers: Go Lakers. One or two more wins by the Lakers would really put the Sixers in the drivers seat for the 3rd most ping pong balls, and also open up possibility of the Lakers catching Orlando.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 31st, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 31, 2015 - 7:00 am |
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Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers lost (good) / Lakers won (good): The Sixers lost a “heartbreaker” in overtime against the Lakers, the Sixers 2nd loss to Los Angeles this month. Those losses have been crucial, as the Sixers now have 2 less wins than the Lakers with only 7 games left to play (9 left for the Lakers). I’m still not entirely comfortable, as weird things happen late in the season as  good teams rest starters, and the Sixers have some very winnable games coming up (Hornets, Knicks, Bucks, primarily), although the Lakers end their season with a game against Minnesota and two games against the Kings.
  • Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota lost by 20 to Utah, their 4th loss in a row. The Wolves do have a crucial game against Orlando coming up, and also have the Lakers in their upcoming schedule. That being said, unless the Sixers drop their final 7 games of the season, I’m just not sure I see the Wolves winning enough to catch them.
  • Net rating over the last 10 games: Lakers -3.7, Sixers -4.0, Wolves -11.8, Knicks -17.6. The Wolves and Knicks are playing on a very different level of bad (horrid) than the Sixers and Lakers (just below average).

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Lakers won (good): The Lakers win pulls them to within 2 wins of 5th-slotted Orlando, who have lost 9 of their past 10 games. At this point, I think I’m rooting for the Lakers to beat the Wolves, as I think there’s a better chance of Los Angeles catching Orlando than there is of the Sixers catching Minnesota.
  • Net rating over their last 10 games: Lakers -3.7, Orlando -10.9.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Boston won (good) / Charlotte lost (good): Overall, this is a positive outcome, as Boston (1 win behind Miami) has a better chance of catching Miami than Charlotte does (3 wins behind, 3-7 in last 10), and the Sixers do need 2 of Charlotte / Indy / Utah / Boston to finish with a worse record than Miami. Besides Boston passing Miami, the Sixers could really use either Brooklyn (2 wins behind, but 7-3 over their last 10) or Indy (2 wins behind, 3-7 in last 10) to catch Miami. I think it’s going to have to be Boston and Brooklyn (note: Utah is also only a win behind Miami. If Utah passes Miami but 2 of Boston/Brooklyn/Indy don’t, then Utah passing them is worthless. However, if 2 if Boston/Brooklyn/Indy do, and Utah does as well, then the 3rd team from that Eastern Conference trio absolutely cannot pass Miami, so Indy struggling isn’t the worst thing in the world. For this reason, I’m going to hope Utah stumbles to give the Sixers some cushion, as they could be the crucial difference between 11th and 10th).
  • Milwaukee lost (bad): Milwaukee lost, keeping them only 1.5 games ahead of Miami in 17th. Milwaukee’s only 2-8 in their last 10 with a -6.1 net rating. They’re a real threat to pass Miami.
  • Utah won (bad): My reasoning for this being bad is explained above. It could very well end up being a positive outcome as long as Indy doesn’t go on an unexpected run.
  • Net rating over their last 10: Jazz +5.3, Boston +1.8, Brooklyn +1.5, Miami +0.5, Charlotte -4.4, Indy -6.1.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Toronto won (bad): Toronto won, their 2nd in a row. The win puts Toronto 2 games up on OKC, making it more and more likely that OKC *must* stay ahead of Washington for the Sixers to get that pick.
  • Phoenix lost (bad): Phoenix lost their 4th in a row and are 4.5 games behind OKC. I really want one of Phoenix or New Orleans to keep the pressure on OKC, and it’s looking like that will have to be New Orleans, who is 2.5 games behind OKC. I’d like them to be a little bit closer, honestly.
  • Housekeeping: I removed Chicago (+3 on OKC) and Phoenix (-3.5) from the tracker.
  • Net rating over their last 10 games: N.O.: +3.7, Toronto +3.1, OKC: +0.9, Washington -1.1.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Pacers @ Nets: At this point, you really have to decide who you think has a better chance of catching Miami, either Indy (2 wins back, 3-7 over their last 10) or Brooklyn (2 wins back, 7-3 in their last 10). 2 weeks ago I would have said Indy, no contest. Now? I think I’m rooting for Brooklyn. Either one is a positive, but I think Brooklyn is playing better ball right now.
  • Spurs @ Heat: Go Spurs. Again, I’d really, really, really like 11th or 12th rather than 16th. With the Pacers playing the Nets (one must lose), a Miami loss isn’t as risky.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 28th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 28, 2015 - 12:57 pm |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers lost (good): The Sixers got destroyed by the Clippers. The Sixers still have the 3rd worst record, 4 wins more than the Knicks, 2 wins more than the Wolves, and 1 win less than the Lakers with 9 left to play.
  • Orlando lost (bad): Orlando lost their 3rd straight, and the Sixers are still 4 games behind 5th-slotted Orlando. With 9 games left, that should be enough.
  • Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks lost. This is not news. They’re 4-16 since I started this tracker.
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers fell to the Raptors and still have only one more win than the Sixers.
  • Minnesota lost (bad): I’m not convinced that either the Knicks or Wolves will win again this season. KG, Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio, Shabazz Muhammad, and Nikola Pekovic all didn’t play last night.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Orlando lost (good): While the Orlando loss keeps them close to the Sixers, it also keeps them “only” 3 games up on the Lakers. Orlando is now 1-9 in their last 10. If there were 25 games remaining, the Lakers might have a shot, but with only 11 games left in the Lakers season this is becoming more and more of a longshot every day.
  • Lakers lost (bad): re: above. Running out of games to catch Orlando.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Charlotte lost (bad?): Charlotte lost. They now have the 9th worst record, but still only have 2 less wins than the Heat. Again, 2 of Boston, Brooklyn, Indy, and Charlotte need to win to get that pick down to the 12th area. At this point, I’ll take wins from pretty much any in that group, so the Hornets losing in double overtime was a bummer.
  • Miami lost (good): At this point, I want Miami to lose, as I really want that pick to fall into the 11-12 range, not the 16 that it currently is.
  • Brooklyn won (good): Same theory as Charlotte above. Brooklyn’s (surprising) win over Cleveland puts them 1.5 games behind Miami.
  • Boston won (good): Again, same logic as above. Boston is now a game behind Miami.
  • Utah lost (bad): Could end up being good if 3 Eastern Conference teams pass Miami, but bad if only 2 do.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Washington won (bad): Washington beating Charlotte in double overtime pulls the Wizards to within a half game of idle OKC. Washington passing OKC, who will be without Durant for the rest of the season, would be bad.
  • Toronto won (bad): Toronto won, putting them 1.5 games ahead of OKC, making it more important that OKC stays in front of Washington.
  • New Orleans won (good): I do not want OKC resting Westbrook, so I’m happy New Orleans won. They’re still 3 games behind OKC, but I don’t want them falling back any more.
  • Phoenix lost (bad): Phoenix lost, keeping them 3.5 games behind OKC for that final playoff spot out West. Again, I’d like Phoenix to keep it close, like New Orleans, to keep the heat (but not the Heat) on OKC to keep playing Westbrook.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Atlanta @ Charlotte: Go Charlotte.
  • Knicks @ Bulls: A Knicks win is good (if unlikely to matter) for the Sixers pick, and a Chicago loss is good for the OKC pick.
  • Golden State @ Milwaukee: Go Milwaukee (don’t want Miami to pass Milwaukee).
  • OKC @ Utah: Definitely need OKC to win here. A Utah loss could be either good or bad, depending on what the rest of the Eastern Conference teams around Miami do, but an OKC win is definitely good.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 27th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 27, 2015 - 10:00 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • No change here, as all of Philadelphia, New York, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Orlando had the night off.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • No change here, as all of Los Angeles, Orlando, and Sacramento had the night off.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Pacers lost (bad) / Bucks won (good): I would have preferred this to go the other way. Finding 2 of Charlotte, Indy, and Boston to pass Miami is starting to become difficult. Indy is now 2.5 games behind Miami, and the Bucks 2.5 games up on Miami in 17th.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • I’ve added Phoenix to the list of teams to track, as they are now closer to the 8th playoff spot in the West than New Orleans is.
  • No change here, as all of OKC, Phoenix, New Orleans, Washington, Chicago, and Toronto had the night off.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Clippers @ Sixers: The Clippers have won 5 in a row and, despite being on the road, should be able to take care of the Sixers.
  • Pistons @ Magic: Still not letting go of the dream of the Lakers passing Orlando. Go Pistons!
  • Hornets @ Wizards: With how much the Pacers are struggling, I think I’m back to rooting for the Hornets. Optionality and all.
  • Heat @ Hawks: At this point, with 2 teams needing to pass the Heat, we need Miami losses.
  • Celtics @ Knicks: It pains me to say this, but the Sixers aren’t catching the Knicks. The Celtics, however, could catch Miami. Go Celtics.
  • Cleveland @ Brooklyn: Again, with how much the Pacers are struggling, and how much of a longshot making up 2.5+ games with ~10 games remaining is, I might just root for Brooklyn, just to give more options for teams that can pass Miami. Pretty much any team (besides maybe Boston and Utah) passing Miami would be a minor miracle. The Sixers need one of Indiana, Brooklyn, or Charlotte to do so.
  • Lakers @ Raptors: A Lakers win moves them closer to Orlando, and also keeps Toronto close to OKC as a backup plan to OKC staying in front of the Wizards.
  • Kings @ New Orleans: We want one of New Orleans or Phoenix to stay close to OKC so OKC continues to try / play Westbrook. Go New Orleans, I guess.
  • Minnesota @ Houston: Go Minnesota.
  • Utah @ Denver: Want teams that can pass Miami to start winning. Go Utah.
  • Portland @ Phoenix: Again, I want a team to stay close with OKC, so I’m hoping Phoenix pulls out a win here.

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – March 26th, 2015

  By Derek Bodner | March 26, 2015 - 7:00 am |
Leave a comment

Overview:

Sixers Draft Pick Tracker

Pick
Currently
Protection
Chance to get
Sixers3rdn/aGuaranteed
Lakers4thTop 517.2% chance the Sixers get it.
Heat10thTop 109.1% chance the Sixers get it
Thunder14thTop 18Pick will not convey
(A + next to a team name means I'm hoping they win, a - next to a team means I'm hoping that they lose)
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

  • Sixers won (bad): The Sixers snapped their 16 game road losing streak, giving them 2 wins more than the Wolves and 4 wins more than the Knicks. Catching either team, at this point, is very much a longshot.
  • Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks weren’t even remotely competitive against the Clippers, and have lost 5 in a row and remain at a league-worst 14 wins.
  • Orlando lost (bad): This shouldn’t matter, but with the Sixers win and the Magic loss Orlando is only 4 wins up on the Sixers in that 5th slot.
  • Lakers won (good) / Wolves lost (bad): The Lakers win is great, as it keeps them with 1 win more than the Sixers. The Wolves loss, however, keeps them at 16 wins, 2 less than the Sixers. It seems  as if the best (realistic) outcome will be the Sixers staying at 3.

2015 Top-of-Draft Standings

Team
Record
GB
Last 10
Remaining:
Wolves16-65--0-10Thunder
Knicks17-641.03-7Detroit
Sixers18-632.01-9Heat
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)

  • Kings won (bad): The Kings won, keeping them 7 wins ahead of the Lakers in the 6th slot.
  • Orlando lost (good): Orlando keeps on losing and, at 22 wins, only has 3 more than the Lakers.
  • Lakers won (good): The Lakers won, pulling them to within 3 wins of the Magic with 12 left to play.

Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick

(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
1st or 2nd0%
3rd4%
4th17.2%
5h44.8%
6th78.5%

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):

  • Indiana won (good): Indiana won, pulling them to within 2 games of Miami. Really want 2 of Indy/Boston/Charlotte to pass Miami, and Indy and Boston seem like the best bets. I think I’m confident enough in Charlotte not making up 2.5 games on Miami where Indy going on a little bit of a run be great.
  • Brooklyn won (bad) / Charlotte lost (good): If I had to choose, I’d probably want Charlotte to lose here. Both Charlotte and Brooklyn are now 2.5 games behind Miami, and would have to go on pretty good runs to catch the Heat. As long as those two teams stay behind Miami, the odds are the Sixers will get the Heat pick.
  • Miami won (bad) / Boston lost (bad): This one would have been really nice if it went the other way. The Miami win continues to put too much separation between the Heat and Boston / Indiana.
  • Utah lost (bad): Utah lost and is still 2 games behind Miami. As long as Charlotte doesn’t pass Miami, Utah passing them would be beneficial.

Standings - Miami Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (on Miami)
Last 10
Remaining
9thHornets33-48-3.03-7@Raptors
10thHeat36-45--3-7@Philadelphia
11thNets37-44+1.06-4Orlando
15thPacers38-43+2.06-4@Memphis
(last updated April 15th, 2015)

Lottery Odds - Heat Pick

(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).
Finish
% Chance the Sixers get it
8th~0.01%
9th0.4%
10th9.1%
11th97.1%
12th97.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):

  • Washington lost (good): Washington lost, keeping them a game behind OKC.
  • Chicago won (bad) / Toronto lost (good): Toronto fell again, and they remain only 1 game up on OKC as a backup plan to OKC staying in front of Washington. With the win and OKC loss Chicago is now 2.5 games up on OKC in 21st, and unlikely to be in play.
  • New Orleans lost (bad): Why bad? The loss keeps New Orleans 3.5 games behind OKC, keeping OKC comfortably in that last playoff spot out West. That comfort is my concern. I don’t want OKC resting Westbrook, thus potentially allowing Washington to pass them. We need the Pelicans to keep it close, but ultimately not pass OKC.
  • OKC lost (bad): OKC got destroyed by San Antonio and missed a chance to put another game of separation between them and Washington.

Standings - Thunder Pick

Slot
Team
Record
GB (OKC)
Last 10
14thPelicans43-36--6-4
Remaining:@Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs
18thThunder43-36--4-6
Remaining:@Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves
19thWizards45-34+2.05-5
Remaining:Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs
20thRaptors47-32+4.06-4
Remaining:@Heat, @Celtics, Hornets
(last updated April 11th, 2015)

Tonight’s games:

  • Pacers @ Bucks: Either team losing isn’t exactly optimal. A Pacers loss decreases the chances that they’ll pass Miami, but a Bucks loss pulls Miami closer to passing the 17th-slotted Bucks. I’m probably pulling for the Pacers here, as I really want them to pass Miami.