Overview:
Sixers Draft Pick Tracker
Pick | Currently | Protection | Chance to get |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sixers | 3rd | n/a | Guaranteed |
| Lakers | 4th | Top 5 | 17.2% chance the Sixers get it. |
| Heat | 10th | Top 10 | 9.1% chance the Sixers get it |
| Thunder | 14th | Top 18 | Pick will not convey |
(last updated March April 15th, 2015)
Sixers pick (currently 3rd):
- Sixers lost (good) / Lakers won (good): The Sixers lost a “heartbreaker” in overtime against the Lakers, the Sixers 2nd loss to Los Angeles this month. Those losses have been crucial, as the Sixers now have 2 less wins than the Lakers with only 7 games left to play (9 left for the Lakers). I’m still not entirely comfortable, as weird things happen late in the season as good teams rest starters, and the Sixers have some very winnable games coming up (Hornets, Knicks, Bucks, primarily), although the Lakers end their season with a game against Minnesota and two games against the Kings.
- Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota lost by 20 to Utah, their 4th loss in a row. The Wolves do have a crucial game against Orlando coming up, and also have the Lakers in their upcoming schedule. That being said, unless the Sixers drop their final 7 games of the season, I’m just not sure I see the Wolves winning enough to catch them.
- Net rating over the last 10 games: Lakers -3.7, Sixers -4.0, Wolves -11.8, Knicks -17.6. The Wolves and Knicks are playing on a very different level of bad (horrid) than the Sixers and Lakers (just below average).
2015 Top-of-Draft Standings
Team | Record | GB | Last 10 | Remaining: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 16-65 | -- | 0-10 | Thunder |
| Knicks | 17-64 | 1.0 | 3-7 | Detroit |
| Sixers | 18-63 | 2.0 | 1-9 | Heat |
Lakers pick (top 5 protected, currently 4th)
- Lakers won (good): The Lakers win pulls them to within 2 wins of 5th-slotted Orlando, who have lost 9 of their past 10 games. At this point, I think I’m rooting for the Lakers to beat the Wolves, as I think there’s a better chance of Los Angeles catching Orlando than there is of the Sixers catching Minnesota.
- Net rating over their last 10 games: Lakers -3.7, Orlando -10.9.
Lottery Odds - Lakers Pick
(Meaning, if the Lakers end up with the 4th worst record, there's a 17.2% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).Finish | % Chance the Sixers get it |
|---|---|
| 1st or 2nd | 0% |
| 3rd | 4% |
| 4th | 17.2% |
| 5h | 44.8% |
| 6th | 78.5% |
Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 16th):
- Boston won (good) / Charlotte lost (good): Overall, this is a positive outcome, as Boston (1 win behind Miami) has a better chance of catching Miami than Charlotte does (3 wins behind, 3-7 in last 10), and the Sixers do need 2 of Charlotte / Indy / Utah / Boston to finish with a worse record than Miami. Besides Boston passing Miami, the Sixers could really use either Brooklyn (2 wins behind, but 7-3 over their last 10) or Indy (2 wins behind, 3-7 in last 10) to catch Miami. I think it’s going to have to be Boston and Brooklyn (note: Utah is also only a win behind Miami. If Utah passes Miami but 2 of Boston/Brooklyn/Indy don’t, then Utah passing them is worthless. However, if 2 if Boston/Brooklyn/Indy do, and Utah does as well, then the 3rd team from that Eastern Conference trio absolutely cannot pass Miami, so Indy struggling isn’t the worst thing in the world. For this reason, I’m going to hope Utah stumbles to give the Sixers some cushion, as they could be the crucial difference between 11th and 10th).
- Milwaukee lost (bad): Milwaukee lost, keeping them only 1.5 games ahead of Miami in 17th. Milwaukee’s only 2-8 in their last 10 with a -6.1 net rating. They’re a real threat to pass Miami.
- Utah won (bad): My reasoning for this being bad is explained above. It could very well end up being a positive outcome as long as Indy doesn’t go on an unexpected run.
- Net rating over their last 10: Jazz +5.3, Boston +1.8, Brooklyn +1.5, Miami +0.5, Charlotte -4.4, Indy -6.1.
Standings - Miami Pick
Slot | Team | Record | GB (on Miami) | Last 10 | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | Hornets | 33-48 | -3.0 | 3-7 | @Raptors |
| 10th | Heat | 36-45 | -- | 3-7 | @Philadelphia |
| 11th | Nets | 37-44 | +1.0 | 6-4 | Orlando |
| 15th | Pacers | 38-43 | +2.0 | 6-4 | @Memphis |
Lottery Odds - Heat Pick
(Meaning, if the Heat end up with the 11th worst record, there's a 97.1% chance that the Sixers will get the pick after the lottery).Finish | % Chance the Sixers get it |
|---|---|
| 8th | ~0.01% |
| 9th | 0.4% |
| 10th | 9.1% |
| 11th | 97.1% |
| 12th | 97.4% |
Oklahoma City Thunder pick (top 18 protected, currently 19th):
- Toronto won (bad): Toronto won, their 2nd in a row. The win puts Toronto 2 games up on OKC, making it more and more likely that OKC *must* stay ahead of Washington for the Sixers to get that pick.
- Phoenix lost (bad): Phoenix lost their 4th in a row and are 4.5 games behind OKC. I really want one of Phoenix or New Orleans to keep the pressure on OKC, and it’s looking like that will have to be New Orleans, who is 2.5 games behind OKC. I’d like them to be a little bit closer, honestly.
- Housekeeping: I removed Chicago (+3 on OKC) and Phoenix (-3.5) from the tracker.
- Net rating over their last 10 games: N.O.: +3.7, Toronto +3.1, OKC: +0.9, Washington -1.1.
Standings - Thunder Pick
Slot | Team | Record | GB (OKC) | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | Pelicans | 43-36 | -- | 6-4 |
| Remaining: | @Rockets, @Wolves, Spurs | |||
| 18th | Thunder | 43-36 | -- | 4-6 |
| Remaining: | @Pacers, Blazers, @Wolves | |||
| 19th | Wizards | 45-34 | +2.0 | 5-5 |
| Remaining: | Hawks, @Pacers, @Cavs | |||
| 20th | Raptors | 47-32 | +4.0 | 6-4 |
| Remaining: | @Heat, @Celtics, Hornets | |||
Tonight’s games:
- Pacers @ Nets: At this point, you really have to decide who you think has a better chance of catching Miami, either Indy (2 wins back, 3-7 over their last 10) or Brooklyn (2 wins back, 7-3 in their last 10). 2 weeks ago I would have said Indy, no contest. Now? I think I’m rooting for Brooklyn. Either one is a positive, but I think Brooklyn is playing better ball right now.
- Spurs @ Heat: Go Spurs. Again, I’d really, really, really like 11th or 12th rather than 16th. With the Pacers playing the Nets (one must lose), a Miami loss isn’t as risky.